October 31, 2022

Michael (Marty) Marinak: Computational physicist at LLNL

Marty serves as a computational physicist for the Lawrence Livermore National Lab in the National Ignition Facility group. He  received his Bachelor’s Degree in Nuclear Engineering from U.C. Berkeley. After graduating, Marty was awarded a Berkeley Fellowship for Graduate Study and proceeded to earn a Ph.D. in Nuclear Engineering from the University of California at Berkeley in 1993.

Cross-section of a holrum.

This graphic shows a high-resolution 3D HYDRA capsule simulation of a June 2017 NIF shot. The spherical contour surface shows the ablation front colored by ion temperature. The cutaway view shows density on the right where the capsule shell contains the hot spot. The jet from the fill tube is visible near the equator. Ion temperature is shown on the left. Credit: Marty Marinak.

Dr. Marinak is the lead developer for HYDRA, the principal Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) simulation code used today. It is because of that simulation capability—combined with exponential growth in high performance computing (HPC) at LLNL, which allowed for the first high-resolution fully spherical 3D simulations of ICF implosions, as well a breakthroughs in ignition at NIF. The code continues to be fundamental for target designers to “try things out” and provides insights into which designs could be successful, given that there are limited numbers of "shots" from the NIF each year.

In April 2023, the National Ignition Facility published an article "Computing Codes, Simulations Helped Make Ignition Possible," with a few quotes from Marty regarding the work he was doing designing codes and computer simulations that have enabled NIF's quest for ignition. Codes are what provide valuaable information that can be used to analyze data and extrapolate predicted results from implosion symmetry, stability and timing, to better tailor new trials for success.

Now that NIF has achieved ignition, this has validated the success of the HYDRA codes developed which enabled the scientists working with the target fabrication team and the laser teams to view full-sphere simulations, giving them a much clearer understanding of what problems needed to be fixed to make ignition happen. In doing so, HYDRA guided the ICF process to move closer to the target reality and achieve success.

“When we started generating diagnostics from full-sphere 3D simulations, a lot of the mysteries went away,” Marinak said. “The simulations told us if you fixed just one of those issues, you probably wouldn't be able to measure an improvement. Even if you fixed all of them to within target fabrication’s abilities, you still wouldn't get the capsule to ignite. That was the turning point. We couldn’t just fix the sources of asymmetry. We needed a more robust target. . . .

Based on the knowledge gained from HYDRA and other codes, Marinak was confident target design was “moving in the right direction” and would eventually result in higher yields.

“I always thought we would make it, but ignition is difficult and was harder to accomplish than we had thought, and that's probably why there’s no one else in the world that has done it,” Marinak said. “Now we have a much clearer understanding of the behavior of these implosions and the challenges that must be overcome.

“We promised that we could do this thing that no one else has done before for stockpile stewardship and for other purposes, and it was greatly rewarding to finally see that we helped to make that happen.”

Dr. Marinak is the principal author on a number of articles in peer-reviewed scientific journals, and co-author on many more.

 

March 22, 2022

Tech Billionaires Rally around Nuclear

Billionaires are rallying around nuclear, according to a recent report from Pitchbook on venture investments in 2021.  Notably, some of these billionaires, Elon Musk and Marc Andreessen, have spoken out about the need to both preserve existing nuclear and to "build 1,000 new state-of-the-art nuclear power plants in the U.S. and Europe right now."

This isn't exactly new, since billionaires like Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos and Peter Thiel have been both investing and advocating for nuclear for years but, nevertheless, 2021 was a banner year for nuclear venture fundraising. Not just are billionaires excited about the prospects for nuclear energy to solve climate, a lot of non-billionaire investors are as well.

According to Pitchbooks, which tries to track all venture investment deals, a record $3.4 billion was plowed by investors into nuclear ventures, which was more than the amount invested in the prior decade combined. Fusion ventures were a major beneficiary of this growing investor interest, despite yet having progressed past the "science project stage" with Commonwealth Fusion raking in $1.8 billion by itself and Helion Energy raising $500 million, but the majority of the 28 deals that were closed were likely in fission. 

There is clearly a trend around an increased level of investor interest in next generation nuclear and a willingness by investors to jump in to the sector. Nucleation Capital was also launched and made its first investments in 2021—which were reported to and presumably included in the analysis by Pitchbook. Our ability to do so a function of the same factors that have stimulated the rise in venture activity, which include: 

1. Widespread recognition that nuclear energy deserves inclusion in green taxonomies and is a critical rare source of firm, clean power that competes against fossil fuels, not renewables.

2. 60+ years of commercial operating experience provide ample evidence that the risks of a nuclear accident are grossly overplayed by the press and nuclear's opponents.

3. Overly hyped radiation fears have been muted by a broader understanding of the beneficial effects of background levels of radiation that occur naturally in our environment.

4. Mastery of next-gen nuclear technology is vital to both national and international security so that Russian and Chinese providers do not succeed in supplying the world's future energy needs and thus being in a position to apply geopolitical pressures on developing nations.

5. Grassroots climate and clean energy advocacy has made its mark on the world stage at COP 26 and demanded not just to protect existing nuclear power plants but also to deploy next-generation designs.

6. Fast-growing wind and solar development have not proven an ability to deliver the level of decarbonization needed to meet climate goals, due to their intermittency and dependence on natural gas. 

7. Longer term decarbonization goals will require energy abundance that is not feasible with current dilute sources of energy but require nuclear's ability to repower coal plants with clean energy.

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the geo-political issues have risen to the top and have increased interest among many countries in eliminating dependence on natural gas even faster than previously planned. If there is a silver lining to the war being fought in Ukraine, it may be the added impetus that it has given to the global urgency to reduce gas dependence and build (or restart) nuclear energy. This reverses the prior trend, where gas (with externalized emissions) replaced nuclear energy, since the only fuel that really competes with nuclear is natural gas (so long as emissions can be externalized).

Learn more at Bloomberg, Tech Billionaires Rally Around Nuclear as Energy Crisis Looms, by Lizette Chapman, March 22, 2022. [PDF]

July 14, 2019

Peter Diamandis on energy abundance and the future of nuclear

Peter Diamandis, Chairman and Co-Founder of Singularity University, founder and executive chairman of the XPRIZE Foundation, writes a tech blog. We were sent a copy of the email that he sent out to subscribers on the future of nuclear, which begins as follows:

Yes, I want nuclear energy *in my back yard*!

Extraordinary new innovations are giving us failsafe nuclear fission and the potential to achieve our age-old dream of fusion.

This year, Bill Gates commented: “Nuclear is ideal for dealing with climate change, because it is the only carbon-freescalable energy source that’s available 24 hours a day. The problems with today’s reactors, such as the risk of accidents, can be solved through innovation.”

This blog is about convincing you to re-consider nuclear as a viable and critical idea. The upside of success is extraordinary, which is why, for the first time, we’re beginning to see venture capital make massive investments in the field.

Let’s dive in!

Read the rest of Diamandis' Tech Blog post: "Energy Abundance: The Future of Nuclear."

December 22, 2016

What’s the big idea?

The Winter edition of Issues in Science and Technology has published a selection of very thoughtful essays from some of our smartest and most successful investors and academics.

In a piece called "What's the big idea?," venerated Venrock VC, Ray Rothrock, discusses his experience and, indeed, success as a venture capitalist and his honed understandings of how to sniff out the best teams and the brightest visions, remaining "ruthlessly focused on finding ideas that we think can be brought to market with reasonable investments and in reasonable periods of time."  He then goes on to explain why he was motivated and even compelled to make an investment in Tri-Alpha Energy, a fusion venture, which he calls "the riskiest and most significant venture project of my career . . . an energy development company that, if it succeeds, would change the world in profound ways."

In "A Roadmap for US Nuclear Energy Innovation," Dr. Richard Lester, professor and associate provost at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, reviews a variety of forces that are inspiring a renewed push for nuclear energy. He cites several recent climate policy assessments that have concluded that meeting the world’s growing appetite for energy while achieving deep reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions will be impossible without rapid nuclear energy growth, along with massive increases in the deployment of solar, wind, and other low-carbon energy technologies. He goes on to propose a roadmap for innovation that enables the U.S. to lead, rather than follow, Russia and China in advancing nuclear technology.

Read Ray Rothrock's essay "What's the big idea?," and Richard Lester essay "A Roadmap for US Nuclear Energy Innovation."

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