September 8, 2023

World is on track to miss climate targets


UN warns that the world will miss climate targets unless fossil fuels are phased out, according to an article in The Guardian by Environmental Editor, Fiona Harvey. This is a remarkable declaration by the UN, which has not previously called for the phase of fossil fuels so explicitly.  Unfortunately, the UN's draft with this important language now appears to have been removed.

There is so much money being made by fossil fuel exporting countries, that in nearly all prior rounds of climate talks and negotiations, discussion of the need to phase out fossil fuels resulted in unresolved controversy.  Yet, because we have failed to curtail carbon emissions, and In fact, they are still rising, the UN declared this "a critical moment" with a "rapidly narrowing window" for governments to reduce their emisisons. The language came out in the UN's report which was published in draft form on September 8th. 

Governments are failing to cut greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to meet the goals of the Paris agreement and to stave off climate disaster. Meeting the goals will require "phasing out all unabated fossil fuels," according to the draft report entited "Sythesis Report of the Technical Dialogue of the First Global Stocktake."  The UN published this draft, despite recognizing that that some oil-producing countries may find that statement hard to take. Meanwhile, the draft now appears to have been embargoed and removed from the UN's website, which is very much the way things have been going all along. We know what we need to do but those profiting from fossil fuels continue to have the power to block progress in phasing down use of those fossil fuels.

Read The Guardian's 'A critical moment’: UN warns world will miss climate targets unless fossil fuels phased out, by Fiona Harvey, Environmental Editor, published September 8, 2023.

July 15, 2021

China launches national carbon market


According to Bloomberg Green, China's national carbon market opened with a "flurry of trades that sent prices surging." This is exceptionally exciting news, yet Bloomberg's annonymous report went on to enumerate many reasons why this is a less than stellar achievement, claiming that "it’ll be years before the system helps the top polluting nation curb its emissions."

We say "bull pucky" to that.  China pulls way ahead of the U.S. with this launch, which requires even state-owned oil giants such as China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec, and China Energy Investment Corp., one of the world’s largest coal producers, to participate in trading carbon allowances. The frenzy produced a rise of 10%—deemed the daily limit—within about 10 minutes of the launch.

While there are always issues to be worked out whenever a new market is launched, as far it goes, China Carbon market's first day was a huge success.  Carbon allowances opened at 48 yuan ($7.42) a metric ton and traded as high as 52.80 yuan, limited by the defined max.

China's carbon prices may be starting low but it won't take long for them to exceed those of California's Cap & Trade system, where the price of carbon started at $12 in November 2014 and which grew a total of 40% over the subsequent five years. It then languished at around $17 from 2019 until May of this year, when it suddenly began to climb.  This performance is an embarrassment and shows the power of the fossil fuel lobby in California throughout the last decade, since the price of buying CO2 hovers at around $150 on the commondity market.  China's carbon market could theoretically exceed the price of carbon in California within a matter of weeks, even with a 10% daily cap.

We are encouraged by China's achievement and believe that they are moving along with an important tool to place the appropriate market signals on carbon emissions.  It is not clear why Bloomberg feels the need to dis their efforts and diminish the importance of this launch but we believe this will light a fire under the U.S. to take more action, which may explain why the price of California's permits started showing some upward movement in price during the May auction.

Read Bloomberg Green's unsigned report, Top Carbon Market Launch Won't Help China Tame Emissions Yet," posted July 15, 2021.

April 27, 2013

Nuclear power saves lives

Scientists working at NASA's Goddard Institute published a study that quantifies how many deaths that would have been caused by fossil fuels if burned for power, were avoided as a result of having had nuclear power displace the power from coal, oil or gas.  The answer is 1.8 million and growing every year that the coal is not burned.

Drs. Pushker Kharecha and James Hansen published Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power in the journal Environmental Science and Technology with the striking figure of 1.8 million as the number of lives saved by replacing fossil fuel sources with nuclear. They also estimate the saving of up to 7 million lives in the next four decades, along with substantial reductions in carbon emissions, were nuclear power to replace fossil fuel usage on a large scale.

In addition the study finds that the proposed expansion of natural gas would not be as effective in saving lives and preventing carbon emissions. In general the paper provides optimistic reasons for the responsible and widespread use of nuclear technologies in the near future. It also drives home the point that nuclear energy has prevented many more deaths than what it has caused.

References:

ACS Publications"Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power," by Pushker A. Kharech and James E. Hansen, on March 15, 2013, Environ. Sci. Technol. 2013, 47, 9, 4889–4895.

Scientific American, "Nuclear power may have saved 1.8 million lives otherwise lost to fossil fuels, may save up to 7 million more." by by Ashutosh Jogalekar on April 2, 2013.

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