July 14, 2026

~90% chance of a record-setting El Nino

The Strongest El Niño Ever

According to Dr. Zeke Hausfather, one of the world's leading climate scientists, based on the data we have so far and the analysis of that data by some 667 scientists evaluating global temperatures through some 14 different forecast models, not only is this year's El Niño likely to be the strongest ever recorded, it may even be the strongest by a truly "mind-blowing margins."

After all the scientists submit their models' estimates for what may happen during this year's El Niño event, the "multi-model" median stands at 3.6C, which is roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior world record of 2.75C. Previously, the largest jump up was only 0.5C.  Thus, the models are, collectively, predicting weather outside of the bounds of anything previously ever observed with global temperatures. Which means that we are headed into entirely unknown territory as a planet, that even the scientists who have been watching the global temperature trends worsening for years and decade, have never seen in their lives.

What Dr. Hausfather finds remarkable is not just the magnitude of the projected heat level but also the trajectory of how quickly it is developing.  What scientists are seeing in how 2026 global temperatures are progressing, as we enter the northern hemisphere's summer months, is that there is an explosive El Niño onset happening. As unusual as the present trajectory is towards El Niño intensity, in fact the 14 different models have unusually strong model prediction agreement. Given this, the models yield a ~91% chance of a record peak in the El Niño that make it highly likely to be the strongest El Niño ever observed.

This is all still a prediction but the patterns reported by the model are extremely disturbing and the signature of a climate pattern that is not good for humanity or the planet. We definitely need to be more organized around marshalling our response and preparing for a world with record high heat that impacts not just air temperature but also ocean warming.  We can't respond fast enough to this threat and we are clearly going to miss the world's ambition to reduce emissions by 50% by 2030.  But, even with our abject failure to meet our 2030 goals, the good news is that we might be able to meet our 2050 goals, if we can continue our current commercialization progress for next-generation nuclear, that can compete and win against fossil fuels.


References:

The Climate Brink, The Strongest El Niño Ever, by Dr. Zeke Hausfather, July 13, 2026.

December 10, 2025

Gratitude in Greens and Blues

Understanding Biotic Regulation

The challenge of addressing climate change is extremely complex. Even reducing emissions from energy use—as deploying more nuclear will help us to do—doesn't ensure climate stability for future generations. Fortunately, there are things we can do now to better protect our current and future climate and, in appreciation of our investors, advisors and supporters, we are donating to a group whose insights around "biotic regulation" can make a big difference in how humanity fares.

It turns out that forests play a critical and pro-active role in climate change dynamics. Forests, and especially old-growth rainforests, can help to reduce the impacts of our planet's warming. The mounting levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are adding tremendous amounts of heat forcing: that is certain. What is less certain is how severely we'll feel those impacts. With healthy forests, we're much better off.

Emerging from the work of a group of atmospheric physicists, ecophysiologists, and biologists, is an awareness that, weather is not uniform and extreme weather events aren't being distributed equally. Forests, rather than being simply passive stores of carbon, are active participants in controlling weather, particularly the wind and hydrologic cycles. This means, where there are forests, the weather will be more regular, more temperature controlled and more normal.

How do trees and forests do this? They leverage physics, chemistry and their own biology to regulate weather. Through spreading canopies and networks of roots, trees collaborate in keeping the land cool and moist. This cooler air can generate cloud cover, which in turn generates rain and limits the penetration of sunlight, limiting heating impacts and droughts.

Trees can also use their ability to transpire—release moisture from leaves—to help increase the level of humidity in their vicinity, which can increase the air's moisture content and actually hasten rainfall. Clouds in turn reflect the sun's radiation back out into space, reducing heating in their areas despite the higher concentrations of CO2.

Forests, we have learned, have evolved on the planet for millions of years and they have adapted by being able to moderate their own climate. Trees use a number of physical mechanisms—rising warm air, denser cool air and the effects of condensation, to influence winds to suck moist dense cooler air from the seas onto the land and blow warmer air out to sea. Forests are not passive plants: rather, they can act as a massive biologic organism that can actually impact the physics in their environment to trigger rain. Not only is this good for them—giving them the fresh water they need—it is also vital to humanity.

Dr. Anastassia Makarieva, author of the Biotic Regulation substack, frequently discusses this complex blend of physical, chemical and biologic forces that form what she describes as a "biotic pump" that moves water from the ocean to the land. She has argued persuasively that forests play an active role. Further, that thinking that the primary value of forests is in their use as a store of carbon, is failing to recognize their vital function as a force that literally drives a large portion of the hydrological cycles of the planet.  Dr. Makarieva’s writing helps readers recognize the problem of focusing climate efforts exclusively on the issue of carbon emissions and not paying attention to the proactive role of forests as a moderator of extreme weather and protecting them . . . from being actively leveled.

As important as nuclear power is to humanity's ability to reduce emissions, preserving forests is equally important as a way to better prevent extreme heating effects from causing damange to vital ecosystems and human systems. Protecting our natural forests and especially rainforests is key to lengthening the runway for maintaining cooler temperatures and ensuring there is continued rain—even as emissions drive higher global temperatures. Therefore, in addition to our usual year-end support of non-profit groups protecting our nuclear power assets (blue), this year we are donating to the Biotic Pump Greening Group (green), which is working to increase our understanding of the role that forests play in protecting their own ecosystems.

Learn more below:

BIOTIC PUMP GREENING GROUP

About

The Biotic Pump Greening Group Institute is a Brazilian-based non-profit scientific, technological, and innovation organization focused on promoting a paradigm shift in combating Climate Change, ecological restoration, and reforestation. Our core mission is to advance the study of the Biotic Pump Theory and develop innovative practices for ecosystem protection, contributing to the defense and preservation of the environment and the promotion of sustainable development. To achieve this, we support scientific research, design restoration projects, organize educational events, and foster scientific and political activism.

For more information, you can reach out to Carlos Nobre Camargo or Dr. Anatassia Makarieva. If you'd like an introduction, we'd be happy to make that.

Instituto BPGG - Biotic Pump Greening Group:

CNPJ: 59.958.061/0001‑09
Avenida Alfredo Ignacio Nogueira Penido, 335, Sala 706
São José dos Campos – SP
CEP: 12.246‑000
Banking information:

BRADESCO Bank Brazil
Swift: BBDEBRSP
Instituto BPGG - CNPJ 59958061/0001-09
Branch: 06012
Account: 000018678
Iban: BR78.6074.6948.0601.2000.0186.783C.1


Other Groups Working to Protect Rainforests

1. Restore established by Michael Kellett, which collaborated with the Biotic Pump team on organizing an "Embracing Nature's Complexity" conference in Munich in 2024.

2. Mongabay founded by Rhett Ayers Butler, one of the leading providers of ecological journalism, reporting on the state of forests, the often nefarious destruction being wrought on rainforests by corporations and the efforts and challenges of those who seek to protect them. Mongabay was the first big environmental news outlet that covered the biotic pump story, initially back in 2012, with more recent follow ups.

3. Amazon Watch, a 30-year old 501(c) organization, works together with and in support of the Amazon's Indigenous Peoples and allies calling for the Amazon to be free of oil, gas, mining, and all extraction and for the U.N. and Amazonian governments to protect the Amazon from deforestation for palm production or other destructive activities.

 


Groups We Support Working to Protect Nuclear

1. Mothers for Nuclear: Was started on Earth Day in 2016 by two moms who want to protect their children’s future on this planet. They were initially skeptical of nuclear, but through many years of questioning and working at California’s last remaining nuclear plant, they gradually changed their minds. Now they support nuclear as our largest and most hopeful source of clean energy, vital to addressing some of our world’s biggest challenges: climate change, air pollution, and energy poverty. Now, we have an organized way to share our stories and begin a dialogue with others who want to protect nature for future generations.

2. Stand Up for Nuclear: Works to advance nuclear energy worldwide by activating leaders, driving action, and fostering informed public engagement. Since 2019, Stand Up for Nuclear has grown the international movement, uniting citizens and organizations to champion nuclear energy as a key to securing our clean, abundant energy future. They strive to create a future where nuclear energy is embraced as a reliable and sustainable solution for a low-carbon world.

3. Californians for Green Nuclear Power: Is dedicated to promoting the peaceful use of safe, carbon-free nuclear power, and to keeping Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant open, so it can continue in its important role of generating clean energy for the benefit of California’s economy.

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