The Departmenf of Energy released this “Advanced Nuclear” Liftoff Report in response to the recognition across the industry that US nuclear capacity needs to triple by 2050. Surging demand for energy coupled with an urgency to decarbonize energy, makes it clear that nuclear must have a role. The new concensus is that nuclear should grow from approximately 100 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to over 300 GW.
Executive Summary
[Adapted from the report text] A widespread surge in electricity demand after decades of stasis has increased the need for and interest in nuclear. Much of this load growth is being driven by artificial intelligence and data centers with a particular need for carbon-free 24/7 generation . . . . This provides a set of customers who are willing and able to support investment in new nuclear generation assets. Combined with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives, this demand has created a step change in the valuation of the existing fleet and new reactors. In 2022, utilities were shutting down nuclear reactors; in 2024, they are extending reactor operations to 80 years, planning to uprate capacity, and restarting formerly closed reactors.
Nuclear has an essential role in the energy transition as a clean firm complement to renewables. Power system decarbonization modeling, regardless of level of renewables deployment, shows the US will need at least ~700–900 GW of additional clean firm capacity to reach net-zero; nuclear is one of the few proven options that could deliver this at scale. . . . Including nuclear and other clean firm resources reduces the cost of decarbonization by reducing the need for additional variable generation capacity, energy storage, and transmission.
Nuclear provides a differentiated value proposition for a decarbonized grid. Nuclear generates carbon-free electricity, provides firm power that complements renewables, has low land-use requirements, and has lower transmission requirements than distributed or site-constrained generation sources. It also offers high-paying jobs and significant regional economic benefits, can aid in an equitable transition to a net-zero grid, and has a wide variety of use cases that enable grid flexibility and decarbonization beyond the grid, including high temperatures for industrial heat.
SOURCE:
The Department of Energy; Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Advanced Nuclear 2024). Published September, 2024.