July 14, 2026

~90% chance of a record-setting El Nino

The Strongest El Niño Ever

According to Dr. Zeke Hausfather, one of the world's leading climate scientists, based on the data we have so far and the analysis of that data by some 667 scientists evaluating global temperatures through some 14 different forecast models, not only is this year's El Niño likely to be the strongest ever recorded, it may even be the strongest by a truly "mind-blowing margins."

After all the scientists submit their models' estimates for what may happen during this year's El Niño event, the "multi-model" median stands at 3.6C, which is roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior world record of 2.75C. Previously, the largest jump up was only 0.5C.  Thus, the models are, collectively, predicting weather outside of the bounds of anything previously ever observed with global temperatures. Which means that we are headed into entirely unknown territory as a planet, that even the scientists who have been watching the global temperature trends worsening for years and decade, have never seen in their lives.

What Dr. Hausfather finds remarkable is not just the magnitude of the projected heat level but also the trajectory of how quickly it is developing.  What scientists are seeing in how 2026 global temperatures are progressing, as we enter the northern hemisphere's summer months, is that there is an explosive El Niño onset happening. As unusual as the present trajectory is towards El Niño intensity, in fact the 14 different models have unusually strong model prediction agreement. Given this, the models yield a ~91% chance of a record peak in the El Niño that make it highly likely to be the strongest El Niño ever observed.

This is all still a prediction but the patterns reported by the model are extremely disturbing and the signature of a climate pattern that is not good for humanity or the planet. We definitely need to be more organized around marshalling our response and preparing for a world with record high heat that impacts not just air temperature but also ocean warming.  We can't respond fast enough to this threat and we are clearly going to miss the world's ambition to reduce emissions by 50% by 2030.  But, even with our abject failure to meet our 2030 goals, the good news is that we might be able to meet our 2050 goals, if we can continue our current commercialization progress for next-generation nuclear, that can compete and win against fossil fuels.


References:

The Climate Brink, The Strongest El Niño Ever, by Dr. Zeke Hausfather, July 13, 2026.

July 6, 2026

The Reactor Pilot Program: A Historic Success and the Road Ahead

Pictured: The Aalo team preparing for criticality.

The Reactor Pilot Program (RPP) has been a rousing success. As of 12:20 am on July 4, 2026, four novel new reactors have been built and started within one year after the formal initiation of the program. Executive Order 14301, which directed the Department of Energy to create the program included a stimulating, challenging goal of having at least 3 reactors start by July 4, 2026. It can be correctly claimed that the RPP has been an over-achiever. July 4, 2026 was the 250th anniversary of the signing of the U.S. Declaration of Independence, adding a bit of historic gravitas to the event.

For nuclear energy professionals and supporters, the month-long period between June 4 and July 3, 2026 will be remembered as an exciting time, full of news and celebrations. New reactor starts were achieved in rapid-fire succession on June 4 (Antares Mark-0), June 18 (Valar Ward 250), June 30 (Deployable Energy Unity) and July 3 (Aalo Aalo-CTR). Along the way, several other milestones – including first thermal power and first electricity from a novel reactor (Valar Ward 250) – were achieved and celebrated.

A talented and diverse team of individuals and organizations from both the government and the private sector made it happen. The engineering, equipment and construction costs were paid by the private sector, while the government covered the costs of its employees when performing government functions. It also provided land, security and arranged for use of existing facilities.

The group of reactor criticalities achieved during the early phases of the RPP mark a major step forward in the process of designing, developing, testing, iterating, refining and licensing new types of nuclear fission power plants that have not yet become commercially viable.

Rod Adam at the INL

Rod Adams with the INL DOME in the background.

Perhaps the most important outcome of the RPP – measured over the long term – is that it provided the Department of Energy several opportunities to refine its processes for reviewing, approving, constructing and operating novel reactor technologies. That full authorization process has now been completed for four separate reactors with reviews continuing for participants in the RPP and Launch Pad that are at different stages of development. With experience and practice the process continues to improve. Exercising with real world projects is a terrific way to refine processes and procedures.

The Nuclear Energy Launch Pad is the combined follow-on for the RPP and the related Fuel Line Pilot Program. It will be able to build on and improve the solid foundation created and tested for the successful RPP.

The existence of a well-supported and improving path between the development stages of ideas and computer models to the stage of constructing and testing physical pilots can unlock access to a vast pool of private risk capital. The refined process retires a significant number of known risks. It lets the review process move at the speed of business. Even though more risks can be mitigated with additional actions, substantial progress should be made in parallel with continuing process improvements.

The pilot reactors that have achieved criticality are not commercial products. They need several iterative steps before they are even complete R&D products. Three of them are not yet ready to produce any fission power because they have not yet installed the heat transfer systems that will remove fission heat. The one that is producing power, the Valar 250, was built with a reduced power reactor and a correspondingly small heat rejection system, not a complete heat conversion or utilization system.

There is a reasonably clear path for installing the needed systems, both in a regulatory and physical sense. Once those steps are completed, an extensive series of tests will be completed. If electricity is produced during testing, it can be supplied to the reactor facilities and the hosting laboratories or it can be dissipated through heat rejection systems. Alternatively, it can be dissipated by producing electricity that is then discarded in added systems like resistor banks.

That’s as far as the pilot reactors can go under their DOE authorizations; those approvals do not allow for the sale of electricity or heat to outside customers. For micro reactors producing a megawatt or so, that limitation isn’t horrible, but the RPP and the Nuclear Energy Launch Pad include participants with much more powerful reactors. A heat rejection system for a few megawatts is reasonably compact and doesn’t have too much local environmental impact; one that needs to reject 225 – 900 MWth is a different story. Throwing away electricity generated during full power testing of a 75 MWe reactor wastes almost $200,000 per day.

It would be more prudent for pilot or demonstration reactors to build fully functional power conversion systems that produce useful electricity or heat and to sell those products when available during portions of the testing program. Some of the tests that help prove commercial viability will include sustained periods of high power operation for reliability and fuel performance evaluation. Selling the electricity produced as a byproduct of the testing won’t turn the test and demonstration reactor into a profitable installation, but the revenues can help reduce the amount of capital required for commercial product development.

Class 104c is the licensing step between DOE authorization as an R&D facility that is not allowed to sell products and NRC licensing as a Class 103 commercial reactor. It’s a licensing step that has not been exercised, but the NRC regulations associated with Class 104(c) licenses were recently updated and re-emphasized.

Reviews and approvals for Class 104(c) are, by law, somewhere between those required for a DOE authorization and those required for a fully commercial license under Class 103. The NRC page titled “Technology, License Class, and Regulatory Approach” includes the below quote:

Section 104(c) of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, as amended, states that,

The Commission is directed to impose only such minimum amount of regulation of the licensee as the Commission finds will permit the Commission to fulfill its obligations under this Act to promote the common defense and security and to protect the health and safety of the public and will permit the conduct of widespread and diverse research and development.

Under Class 104(c), reactors that are still in the research and development – aka pre-commercial – phase can sell electricity, heat and non-energy services as long as less than 75% of their annual costs are dedicated to providing those activities. They are also allowed to sell training and research and development services without counting against the cost limitation.

For those who are well-versed in developing high tech products, think of Class 104(c) as a regulatory permission structure for beta product releases in high-impact, tightly-controlled markets.

The provision for licensing pre-commercial products under Class 104(c) licenses has been in the rules since 1970, but it hasn’t been exercised. It’s hard to determine the precise  reasons why something hasn’t been done before, but contributing factors include the assumption that all nuclear reactors had to be extra-large before they could be commercial and the financially risk averse nature of monopoly electric utilities and established reactor vendors. It’s hard to imagine a successful financing model for a reactor costing $10 B or more that is restricted in its ability to generate sales revenues.

The rising prominence of smaller, lower-cost reactors, non-traditional electricity customers and the increasing importance of venture capital-backed vendors has changed the decision process. Modern reactor developers know that new and improved products with revolutionary proprietary features need several iterations before they can become competitive products. They know that initial units will produce losses, but they may prefer to minimize those losses by selling output when they can.

Venture capitalists are not like bankers or public service commissions; they understand that there are major risks associated with product development and refinement. History has shown them that there are major rewards when the product finds a fit with the needs of eager customers, making venture capital an increasingly capable source of financing.

Pictured: United States Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, having just signed the DOE approval for Aalo Atomics to load its fuel. 

The RPP has helped to restore the development process originally envisioned by the Atomic Energy Act of 1954. That foundational piece of legislation provided a framework for Atomic Energy Commission reactor licenses that established appropriately differentiated rules and process requirements for licensing reactors that were still being developed and refined compared to the rules that govern licensing for reactors that were ready to compete in the commercial energy markets.

The next step is to begin exercising the transition between DOE R&D reactor authorization and NRC pre-commercial licenses under Class 104(c). Adequate rules are in place and do not need any immediate legislation or lengthy rule-making processes.

The RPP showed that the U.S. is capable of moving smoothly when building new nuclear power systems using appropriate levels of cooperation between government, government contractors and private enterprise. Major process steps have been developed and exercised. There is a daunting amount of work ahead but there are clear paths on which to take the next important steps in this rewarding journey.

--

This article was written by Rodney Adams - Managing Partner at Nucleation Capital. You can read more from Rod at Atomic Insights.

July 4, 2026

Aalo Atomics achieves criticality at INL

Aalo Atomics became the fourth company to achieve criticality with their advanced, Gen IV microreactor by July 4th, under Executive Order 14301 propelling the advanced nuclear sector towards commercializatio.

June 30, 2026

Deployable Energy achieves criticality at INL

Deployable Energy became the third company to achieve criticality with their 1-MW Gen IV microreactor prior to July 4th, under the Executive Order directives propelling the sector towards commercializatio.

June 25, 2026

History in the Making in Idaho

Aalo Atomics has completed assembly of its Aalo-X Critical Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory, with fuel delivery imminent and final DOE approval pending, and expects to achieve criticality within weeks, ahead of the July 4 deadline this summer...

June 23, 2026

Witnessing Atomic History in the Making at the INL

If you've been focused for most of your career on seeing the nuclear industry modernize and introduce a multitude of improved products and services to expand the use of nuclear power around the world, then you'd absolutely choose to camp out in Idaho Falls for the next couple of weeks as nearly a dozen companies race towards achieving criticality with their reactors.

Which is why Rod Adams, Nucleation's managing partner for the last five years and host of Atomic Insights & The Atomic Show for just over thirty years, arrives in Idaho Falls this week to watch nuclear history being made.

Here are now a few pictures from his arrival and participation in the hosted tours being provided by the INL. Rod already has a pretty packed schedule but if you are going to be in Idaho Falls and want to connect with Rod, please use this form and we'll make sure you can reach Rod.

 

 

June 18, 2026

Shine, Newcleo join up to close nuclear fuel cycle ()

US fusion venture, Shine Technologies, has joined MARIE, a consortium that is working to build US nuclear fuel recycling capability, agreeing to work with Newcleo to link Shine's recycling capabilities with Newcleo's reactors, which are designed to run on recycled fuel.

May 27, 2026

Focused Energy Raises $240 Million for Laser Fusion

Artist rendering of a future Biblis Power campus in Germany.

(Artist's rendering)


We are pleased to share that Focused Energy
has announced that it struck an important financing deal and raised $240 Million for its continued development of laser-based inertial fusion energy (LIFE). Funding has come from predominantly from RWE AG, one of Germany's largest utilities; SPRIND, Germany's official federal agency for breakthrough innovation; the European Innovation Council Fund; and Prime Movers Lab, the U.S.-based venture fund that had provided the lead backing for Focused Energy's earlier fund-raises in the U.S. 

There are many things to applaud about this announcement. A raise of $240 million in funding at one time may well represent the largest single haul achieved by a fusion team pursuing laser inertial fusion. A considerable aspect to this successful funding reflects powerful state aspirations by Germany to be the country that leads in fusion energy development and its selection of Focused Energy to invest into. It places RWE, a major German utility, as a key strategic and industrial partner, which gives Focused Energy access to the Biblis site, where there's an existing but retired RWE power plant that can potentially help accelerate a future deployment, as well as access to RWE's construction and operational experience. RWE could also become a future customer of fusion energy from Focused Energy. 

There are, however, a number of aspects to this funding announcement that we find disingenous and don't cheer.  This financing comes amidst a series of major changes for Focused, and appears to have required that the company re-domicile in Germany, which it has done. This poses interesting potential issues for the company's partnerships in the U.S. as well as its ability to raise future capital in the U.S.  This move also takes Focused Energy far away from the National Ignition Facility and LLNL, its former closest lab partner, where the company successfully drew expert team members from early on. It's not entirely clear but it may potentially make it harder for Focused, which is retaining several offices in the Austin and San Francisco area, to participate in the U.S. DOE's national Fusion Science and Technology Roadmap program and related federal funding opportunities, since it is no longer a U.S. company with a German subsidiary.

Instead, Focused Energy has returned to Germany to be the poster child for the country's ambition to take a "leading global role in nuclear fusion." Dr. Markus Krebber, CEO of RWE AG applauds Focused Energy and the collaboration between the German federal and state government to advance the development of commercial fusion in Germany. This is not surprising, as Germany remains largely opposed to fission, so focusing on fusion makes sense.  Yet RWE is one of the largest coal-fired plant and lignite mine operators in the country and their involvement and central role in providing future funding for Focused Energy poses certain risks as well.  What seems very clear is that, given these shifts, Focused Energy will have a tougher time trying to raise capital from U.S. venture funds in the future and will be reliant on German funding going forward.

While we understand the importance of building up public interest in one's venture, we disapprove of some of what this announcement contains. In an apparent effort to boost its headline-making news potential, the company claims that this funding is the "largest fully secured Series A financing in the global fusion industry to date." This claim is based not on facts but entirely upon private party negotiations that re-labeled and compressed together several earlier fundraising rounds done in the U.S. between 2021 and 2023 (which was called a Series A back then) converting that funding to series "Seed" status. While it may improve the caliber of today's news grabbing headline, it muddles the financing story. It also encourages similar relabeling of financing histories by other ventures that will inevitably seek to add similar gloss their own images. We invested in Focused in 2022 and have reported on our participation in their Series A for years: now we must explain that we participated in the first but not this second Series A.

Read Focused Energy's May 27, 2026 Press Announcement here: Focused Energy Sets a New Benchmark: $240 Million for the Largest Series A Financing in the Global Fusion Industry.


——————————————

[NOTE:  Nucleation Capital has been investing into advanced nuclear for five years and we believe there are exceptional investment opportunities. Sadly, the investment opportunities are almost entirely distinct from the media powered "claim landscape" that's been generated and concocts ways to hype achievements and/or valuations. This is a growing concern for us across the nuclear energy landscape in general but in fusion particularly. Fusion energy remains a fairly distant goal and not a single electron generated by fusion has ever been put on the grid. Claims that the Berkeley-based National Ignition Facility (NIF) achieved "net energy" as we would ordinarily think of it, are entirely inaccurate. Net energy on a system/plant basis was not achieved and the NIF scientists themselves did not claim that. Scientists accurately claimed "net energy" only from the amount of laser power that hit the target fohrum with the level of neutron flux achieved in plasma, as showing a step up in power. But that output was only fractions of a percent of the total system power that it took to get plasma in the first place.]  

   


© 2026 Nucleation Capital | Terms & Policies

linkedin, for social media footer
X-logo, for social media footer
Nucleation transparent