Post guest written by Collins K. Wafula, Bungoma Town, Kenya (with editing support from Darius Tirgan)

Introduction

Emerging countries have held discussions regarding the role of nuclear power in their energy mix. As a result, African states have embarked on a joint effort to achieve a nuclear renaissance. However, they face geopolitical tensions and technical incapacity alongside other issues identified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Ten African governments are nuclear-ready and have discussed the IAEA’s milestone approach to achieve their nuclear goals and elevate Africa's standing on the global energy map. Examining their energy spectrum and economic capabilities, these nations are keen to collaborate on advanced reactors but struggle to find the right partners. Therefore, for large-scale power and nuclear deployment to succeed, there must be an increase in coordinated efforts and financing to meet the rising African energy demand.

African Energy Demand

Shows the change in total final energy consumption by fuel and sector in the Sustainable Africa Scenario, 2020 - 2030

Africa makes up 17% of the world’s total population but only accounts for 3.4% of global energy consumption, with fossil fuels being the most prominent power source. They generate 91.5% of the African energy grid, with oil and gas producing over 12 times more energy than renewables, despite aiming for climate neutrality by 2050. As of 2023, renewables have produced 62 GW out of Africa’s 245 GW installed capacity, with South Africa contributing 10.62 GW of renewable electricity.

Africa has the least modern energy consumption per capita. However, as the population grows and more people gain access to appliances, power consumption is projected to increase by 1,180TWh over the next decade. Although, increased energy and infrastructure efficiency is estimated to lower energy demand by 230 TWh, 550 TWh of power will be required for universal access to sustainable energy by 2030. The IAEA's Africa Energy Outlook (2022) predicts that energy consumption will increase by one-third between 2020 and 2030.

To meet this rising demand, African countries have approved the African Union Agenda 2063, which provides a growth path over the next five decades. This includes attaining equitable growth and sustainable development in the race to manufacture and enhance energy infrastructure. Initiatives and projects are in place across Africa to power the continent using solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, nuclear, and other sources.

The question, “Is Africa ready for nuclear energy?” resonates with both the OECD and African nations. However, this should really be, “Is Africa ready to collaborate for a successful nuclear power renaissance?” The answer is yes. South Africa has a commercial nuclear power plant with two reactors in Koeberg, and other African nations are seeking to industrialize agriculture, mining, infrastructure, and other areas in a climate-friendly manner.

There is close competition between nuclear and renewable energy sources in Africa. Uganda has vast hydro resources, Ethiopia has powerful winds, Kenya has enormous geothermal power, and Morocco has widespread solar power. These renewable sources are crucial for meeting Africa's growing energy demands. However, there are still challenges in establishing a strong regional energy system. African nations follow differing energy policies. Kenya anticipates that nuclear power will provide 30% of its electricity by 2037 while constantly readjusting its plans to maximize its safety and security.

Geopolitics and the Energy Crisis in Africa

The African energy crisis is also linked to the geopolitical dynamics reshaping the global energy landscape. With climate change moving the world towards alternative energy sources, Africa has an opportunity to leverage its abundant renewable and nuclear resources.The pursuit of nuclear power could serve as a catalyst for greater regional cooperation and integration across Africa. The shared interests and technical expertise required for safe nuclear operation create incentives for collaboration on regulatory frameworks, skill development, and resource sharing. Strengthening nuclear governance and safety through continentally unified policies will build confidence and trust.

This cooperation also nurtures collective diplomatic capital. Groups like the African Commission on Nuclear Energy promote civil nuclear development as a pathway for sustainable development as opposed to proliferation. These unified positions give African nations greater leverage in non-proliferation discussions with global powers. The threat of nuclear weapons proliferation, however, still looms large in the minds of nations outside Africa. The latent risk of nuclear technology being used for military purposes or nuclear materials falling into corrupt hands raises security concerns. There is also an idea that poor states could collaborate with nations like North Korea given the right monetary and economic incentives.

This geopolitical stigma requires that African nations tread cautiously and work hard to assure the world of their commitment to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Ratifying and adhering to international safeguards, export control regimes, and nuclear safety and security protocols is crucial. Being transparent about their nuclear fuel cycle activities will help foster additional trust. While exercising their sovereign rights to pursue nuclear power for economic development, African countries must pacify the global powers that may impede access to nuclear technology, investments, and fuel supply chains if left unsatisfied by the non-proliferation commitments.

Africa also has a rich uranium resource base that could power its nuclear reactors. For a long time, Namibia has been the largest producer of Uranium in Africa with reserves of up to 470,100 Mt, enough to power a 1GW reactor for a minimum of 1,175 years. Geopolitical tensions in Western Africa have caused Uranium prices to surge, with the spot price nearly doubling to $106 per pound due to Niger's reduced uranium supply impacting France. This comes after the G7 nations pledged to reduce their reliance on civil nuclear-related goods from Russia and diversify their fuel supply sources. It is a race towards sustainable energy which could highly benefit Africa.

At its core, Africa's energy crisis is a humanitarian emergency. Over 600 million people lack reliable access to electricity, one of the biggest barriers to economic mobility and human development today. This energy poverty perpetuates cycles of agrarian minimalism, disease, poor educational outcomes, and marginalization of entire communities and nations. Overcoming this through large-scale electrification via nuclear and renewable sources is imperative for inclusive economic growth and to unlock Africa's potential. Reliable base load power from nuclear energy can catalyze new industrial capabilities, healthcare provisions, education systems, and raise standards of living.

Extroversive Nations Seeking Advanced Reactors

Nuclear newcomer nations have looked at Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technology as a solution for the energy crisis due to its lower installation costs compared to traditional nuclear. Other reasons include their flexibility in rural region development, which would greatly benefit Africa as it is 51.76% rural. There has been a rise in collaborative work and events to meet the African energy demand, leading to the World Bank funding $1.3 billion for the Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) and sparking a debate on whether Africa should go nuclear. Interested nations include Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia, Namibia, Rwanda and Ethiopia. These nations are diversely choosing their collaborative partners through Nuclear Energy Agencies or Commissions, but their goal is still one: to increase their current energy capacity.

These are the current energy generation capacities excluding nuclear:

• Nigeria 16.38 GW
• Ghana 5.4 GW
• Ethiopia 5.2 GW
• Kenya 3.3 GW
• Zambia 3.3 GW

• Tanzania 1.9 GW
• Uganda 1.8 GW
• Senegal 1.4 GW
• Namibia 0.6 GW
• Rwanda 0.3 GW

The HDI of these nations may not be near the OECD nations, but their electricity access rates tell a different story. In 2022, Ghana had an 88.8% electricity access rate and an 86.8% household electricity access rate. It has been highly active in the nuclear power program and has established a  commitment to explore SMRs.

However, it is also important to mention renewables. Kenya’s renewable capacity is 2.7 GW with an additional 70GW of geothermal potential. Most Kenyans desire other energy sources to fully utilize Kenya’s current grid capacity. Ethiopia has a hydropower potential of 45GW—the second most after the DRC. In Rwanda, a small nation with big ambitions, the Ministry of Infrastructure has projected that 3.8 million households must be connected to the national grid. In 2021, it consumed 1.022 GWh with 58% coming from renewable energy. Nuclear is expected to produce up to an additional 300 MW. South Africa is ready to add 2,500 MW and combat severe power cuts affecting their country. ESKOM’s Koeberg Nuclear Power station is currently going through a refurbishment program to extend its reactor lifespan to 2044/45. Unit 1 shut down but was expected to be back up and running in the summer of 2024, and Koeberg Unit 2 will be coming back online in September 2024 as scheduled.

Developing New Technologies Needs Collaboration  

In an era marked by growing energy demands and climate change, Nuclear newcomer nations stand at a crossroads. With the African population projected to double by 2050 and rapid urbanization driving increased energy consumption, the continent faces a pressing need for sustainable and reliable power sources. Amidst this backdrop, nuclear energy is a promising solution, offering a low-carbon alternative capable of meeting Africa's energy needs while fostering economic development.

Ghana’s Energy Minister and Deputy Power Director, Robert Sogbadji, has listed the foreign companies vying for the prospective nuclear power plant project for Ghana. They include France’s EDF, US-based NuScale Power and Regnum Technology Group, and China National Nuclear Corporation. Other companies vying for the project include South Korea’s Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), its subsidiary Korea Hydro Nuclear Power Corporation, and Russia’s ROSATOM. These companies are essential for providing the funding and regulatory support necessary to develop and manage successful nuclear energy programs. To sustain this new technological outpour, African countries are developing a skilled workforce capable of managing and operating nuclear facilities while ensuring safe and secure operations.

But there is no great development without resistance. The public and key activists, like Kenyan Phyllis Omida, echo the nuclear waste mantra. They are desperate to keep nuclear out of Kenya. Some politicians are resisting the project due to the high initial cost, and engineers are unsure if they can manage innovative technologies. New companies are encouraged to offer training and resolve these concerns, so nuclear programs remain a priority. Furthermore, Africa's new energy system aims to be powered by renewable and nuclear energy.

Nuclear is also gaining popularity at business and climate conventions, such as the Conference of the Parties (COP), as a sustainable energy source for Africa and the rest of the globe. Countries in Africa require clean and inexpensive energy. However, there are significant challenges in establishing the correct partners and energy policies. Do they support energy independence but compromise with coal? Which nation or nations are best suited to collaborate with specific African states?

Bringing nuclear into the energy mix can help nations like Burkina Faso, one of the least electrified countries in the world with only 20% power access, develop and industrialize. However, political incoherence is preventing collaborations with OECD states. The future of nuclear energy in Africa is a multifaceted endeavor involving holistic approaches and technologies aimed at ensuring sustainability, accessibility, and reliability.

Advancing Nuclear for Energy Independence

Nuclear power is especially appealing to African nations because it satisfies one of the most important cornerstones of economic and national security: energy independence. For years, African nations have heavily relied on imported fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal to fulfill their energy requirements. This dependency has left them highly susceptible to the unpredictable nature of energy markets’ price fluctuations, which are influenced by geopolitical factors, disruptions in supply chains, corruption and other external variables.

This absence of self-sufficiency has significantly hindered Africa’s ability to progress forward. Relying on imported fuels depletes foreign exchange reserves, limiting resources for investment in vital sectors like infrastructure, healthcare, and education. Furthermore, excessive reliance on suppliers raises concerns about security as energy sources may be exploited for influence or disrupted during conflicts. Nuclear power would allow African countries to break this cycle of energy dependence.

Domestically produced nuclear power does this by providing a consistent, self-controlled supply source. This newfound autonomy unlocks significant economic benefits through lower and more stable electricity costs for industries and households. A reliable power supply enables new industrial activities, attracts investment, catalyzes job creation, and bolsters economic growth. Additionally, stable and affordable electricity is a prerequisite for improving quality of life through the electrification of homes, schools, and hospitals.

Furthermore, nuclear energy can be a pathway to self-sufficiency since African countries possess abundant uranium reserves. By developing nuclear programs and fuel cycle capabilities, nations like Niger, Namibia, and South Africa could leverage these supplies to achieve total energy independence as well as greater economic activity. Instead of exporting raw uranium, they could capture more value by enriching it to fuel level and using it in domestic reactors.

This shift could lead to the emergence of high-tech industries, the creation of employment opportunities, export revenues, and a reduction in imported energy expenses. A true 'resource blessing.' Nations could enhance their expertise in engineering, manufacturing components, and managing the fuel cycle efficiently. Technological advancements and the development of capital stemming from initiatives would enhance innovation and progress across various sectors.

Nuclear power plays a key role in helping African countries lessen reliance on imports, strengthen energy security, decrease energy expenses, and utilize their uranium resources for complete self-reliance. This enables them to move away from the "resource curse" of exporting materials. Though requiring high initial investment, the lasting advantages include energy self-sufficiency, sustainable progress, and increased economic autonomy.

Thus, Africa is working closely with nations around the world to develop nuclear reactors that will be cost-effective and flexible. Most of the discussion revolves around small modular reactors (SMRs), nuclear fuel design and production, medical isotope production, reactor safety analysis, robotics, and human resource development; many African nations question if they should be the first with a “new design,” due to the uncertainty of their safety. Additionally, these countries are considered poor nations, focused on establishing national grids as their main concern. However, a grid capacity of less than 10GW cannot serve a 1GW nuclear power plant, hence the focus on designs for smaller reactors. The lack of developed energy grids has become a major challenge in the nuclear transition.

Despite this, many countries are still assisting Africa with advanced reactors. The most notable is Russia, having made agreements with Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Nigeria, Ghana, Ethiopia, Sudan, Zambia, Rwanda, Burundi, Congo, and Uganda. China, South Korea, Canada, and the USA are also willing to help.

ROSATOM is actively engaging with Africa, South Asia, and Latin America to develop Floating Power Reactors capable of being deployed across coasts and delivering nuclear energy to inaccessible areas. Of these FPRs, the RITM-200 has power capacities of 100 and 106 MW. Egypt has already started a $30 billion 1.2GW VVER at El-Dabaa and has received $25 billion from ROSATOM. Kenya signed an MoU with the USA-based Holtec Company for an SMR-160 design but may focus on developing a research reactor first.

The USA also recently announced that they will assist Ghana with SMR deployment through an MoU with NuScale. This MoU seeks to provide a NuScale Energy Exploration (E2) center and other related services at the Ghana Atomic Energy Commission (GAEC). The USA is the first country to offer training for African engineers in lieu of the IAEA’s standards for SMR deployment.

IAEA, the Watchdog

From the IAEA

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), based in Vienna, is the international agency charged with watching over activity involving nuclear energy. Their mission is "to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world’.’ As such, African nuclear newcomer nations have received great support from the IAEA through its milestone approach. However, a potential issue is whether the African nations would be held to the same standards as the OECD states, given that the requirements may be “too much” for such poor states. The IAEA is working closely with these states to map out the pathways towards potential nuclear builds, including identifying suitable locations for reactors, establishing a clear set of infrastructural rules, and eventually, guidance on bidding on and install these reactors.

These nations are also subject to the Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Reviews (INIR), which began in 2009, and many are eagerly attending training programs to help them achieve their nuclear goals.

Before the IAEA begins Phases 1, 2, and 3 of their Milestone approach to develop a country's nuclear power infrastructure, the national energy strategy must already include a nuclear power option. Uganda wants to generate 1GW by 2031, but they have another strategy to develop an additional 1GW by 2040. Ghana plans to issue a Request for Information (RFI) in 2024 to choose a partner for their nuclear power program. Rwanda began collaborating with Dual Fluid, a Canadian SMR business, in 2023, with the goal of establishing a research reactor by 2026. The Rwanda Atomic Energy Board (RAEB) has approved their feasibility study, which is scheduled for completion in August 2024. Kenya is still in Phase II of the IAEA milestone approach, having completed the INIR in 2015 and 2021. MoUs with China, South Korea, and the United States have demonstrated strong commitments to nuclear energy. Finally, Nigeria has invited the IAEA to conduct its second INIR, aiming to achieve the nuclear power strategy outlined in the National Energy Master strategy (NEMP).

Cost Concerns and Conclusion

Much of the objection to nuclear from the continent pertains to perceptions of its high costs. While the initial investment for constructing nuclear power facilities is notably high, the fact is that when the lifetime operating expenses and unique benefits of nuclear energy (high degree of reliability and operating capacity factors, long facility lifespan, stable prices, economic and educational ripple effects, negligible pollution or climate impacts and energy independence) , nuclear power emerges as one of the most cost-effective and beneficial sources of electricity generation, especially in a world that emphasizes reducing carbon emissions.

The high initial investment for nuclear plants is due to the historically massive construction process, requiring specialized talent, special equipment, robust safety protocols and systems, as well as a highly stringent regulator to conduct frequent inspections, which requirements all drive up costs. However, once a plant is operational, the fuel costs are remarkably low compared to fossil fuels. Uranium fuel is extremely energy-dense, and a single pellet can generate as much electricity as a ton of coal. This allows nuclear plants to operate with low fuel expenses over multi-decade lifetimes.

As per estimates by the IAEA, the levelized cost of introducing nuclear power systems in Africa falls within the range of $60 to $100 per megawatt-hour (MWh). Though this may appear steep, it stands on par with generation costs from fuels in African nations when factoring in greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution repercussions, and forthcoming policies on carbon pricing designed to curb emissions. Even now, the average LCOE for coal power in South Africa was about $75/MWh as of 2020 and is expected to continue rising with tighter environmental regulations. Meanwhile, nuclear costs would remain steady over 60–80-year reactor lifetimes. These economics increasingly favor nuclear over time.

Moreover, nuclear power offers a key advantage of price stability that fossil fuels lack. Once the initial capital is paid, operating costs are predictable due to low and stable fuel costs. In contrast, coal and gas plants are exposed to volatile global fuel markets with a history of major price shocks. When this price volatility gets factored into these Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) analyses, nuclear power's price advantage becomes even more compelling. Adding in both the benefits of energy security and nuclear low-carbon generation in a carbon-constrained future in which emissions result in economic penalties, the zero-emission profile of nuclear energy further improves its competitive strength.

Finally, it is apparent that deploying Gen IV reactors that are smaller, modular and which can be shipped to locations for more rapid assembly, could further reduce capital costs through economies of scale from factory manufacturing and reduced financing costs. For these, financing vehicles like public-private partnerships and energy banks can also help Africa access capital for major nuclear builds at levels far less than what has long been required for traditional nuclear builds.

So, while the price seems high initially, the total lifetime costs, price stability benefits, lack of emissions, and long-term economic payoffs make nuclear a compelling investment for African nations serious about energy security and sustainable development. With proper financing, nuclear power can be an affordable source of energy independence. Smaller designs with a shorter lifespan are cheaper to install, making them affordable for all.

In conclusion, Nuclear energy, while still posing significant challenges, remains a credible path for rapidly scaling Africa's electrification and catalyzing economic transformation, if the geopolitical tensions can be successfully navigated. With transparent governance and innovative international partnerships, nuclear power can be a blessing for human development across the continent and enable Africa to bring electricity and economic development to all people, while avoiding the detriments posed by increased reliance on fossil fuels.

* * *

Collins Wafula is a young graduate of Maseno University's School of Environment and Earth Sciences, where he studied Geography and Natural Resources Management along with Information Technology. With a passion for addressing energy and climate issues through nuclear power, he successfully leverage technologies (like LinkedIn) to connect with others, including the WePlanet team, a global grassroots movement  campaigning for radical science-backed solutions to the climate and nature emergency, and Nucleation Capital, all while remaining in his home village of Bungoma, Kenya. Collins represents the best of technology-empowered youth connecting globally to solve local problems. He is on the forefront of Kenyans working to leverage next-generation nuclear power to improve access to sustainable and clean energy for his country and other Africans.

[Note: Editing support for this article provided by Darius Tirgan, Nucleation Capital's 2024 Summer Associate.]

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